Why Your “Win Rate” is Lying to You
- Vision TDM
- Jul 10
- 2 min read
Updated: Jul 14
Let’s be honest, most bid teams are obsessed with one thing: win rates.
“We’re winning 40% of bids.”
“We need to hit 60%.”
“We’re sitting at 25%, and that’s not good enough.”
But here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Your win rate isn’t telling you the full story.
In fact, in many cases, it’s completely misleading.
What Is Your Win Rate Actually Telling You?
Win rate is simple math: bids won vs. bids submitted. But it doesn't answer the real strategic questions:
Were those the right bids to go after?
Did we lose on price or value?
Did we improve our scoring compared to the last submission?
Are we making real progress, even when we don’t win?
If you’re not digging deeper, your win rate becomes a vanity metric, something that looks impressive on a slide deck but does little to improve performance.
Reframe the Metric: Progress Over Perfection
Let’s say your team submitted 10 bids and won 2. That’s a 20% win rate, not exactly headline-worthy.
But what if:
✅ 5 of those were longshots you shouldn’t have pursued
✅ 3 improved your scoring by 10+ points
✅ 1 win was for a high-value client worth 3x your average
Now the conversation changes. It’s no longer just “How many did we win?”
It’s: How are we improving? Where are we gaining traction? What are we learning?
Marginal gains in clarity, structure, alignment compound over time and they eventually lead to more meaningful wins.
What Smartbid Teams Are Tracking Instead
If win rate is just the tip of the iceberg, what’s beneath the surface?
Here’s what high-performing bid teams focus on:
✅ Bid Fit Score How closely did this opportunity align with our ideal client or sector?
✅ Reviewer Feedback Trends Are we seeing consistent improvement in clarity, structure, and relevance?
✅ Scorecard Movement Are our technical or qualitative scores trending upward, even in losses?
✅ Quality of Revenue Are the bids we’re winning worth more: strategically and financially?
✅ Turnaround Metrics How efficiently are we using time, resources, and talent in the process?
Losing Isn’t Failure, It’s Data
Some of our best client wins came after a string of losses.
Why? Because we took the feedback seriously.
We rewrote value propositions. We restructured compliance narratives. We redefined win themes based on evaluator language.
The result?
➡️ Scores improved.
➡️ Messaging sharpened.
➡️ Confidence returned.
➡️ Wins started flowing: Strategic, sustainable, and scalable.
Don’t Let the Wrong Metric Drive the Right Team
Chasing win rate alone is like judging a marathoner by their sprint speed. It’s short-sighted. It’s reactive. And worst of all, it can burn out great teams chasing the wrong targets.
Instead, focus on what truly moves the needle:
Strategic alignment. Measurable progress. Intentional learning.
Because in the world of bids, it’s not about being perfect, it’s about getting better, bid by bid.
Want help building smarter bid metrics and strategies that actually win? We do this every day. 👉 www.visiontdm.co.uk
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